"Solar PV industry in 2007 supported by the Spanish, followed by Germany's support, which is a big problem."
National Development and Reform Commission, Energy Research Institute, Li Junfeng,solar water heater deputy director of the "International Forum of Guangdong photovoltaic industry," pointed out that China's heavy reliance on solar PV market in Germany and a few other countries, reduced price subsidies in Germany, it is hard to find can substitute for Germany's new market, "should not blindly optimistic."
Few countries prop up the hot market.
The fourth quarter of last year, China's solar PV industry continued to pick up, many companies order full.solar collector Investment Advisor in the release of "2010 to 2015 China's polysilicon industry, investment analysis and forecast report" shows that in May 2010, total imports of polysilicon 1.55 million tonnes, compared to 7,007 tons last year, more than doubled .
However, support rapid growth, only a few countries. Started to benefit from Spain's pull, followed by Germany. Demand for solar photovoltaic industry has always faced the risk of instability.
From 2004 to 2007, Spain's solar photovoltaic capacity to jump from the original 100 kilowatts to 10 megawatts, an increase of nearly 3 years, 100 times. Under this circumstance, China's PV industry has developed rapidly. Public information, production of photovoltaic cells in 2001, only 3 megawatts, but by 2008 had reached 2,600 megawatts, equivalent to the year they account for almost 1 / 3.
Followed by the Spanish government financial subsidies, and reduce the huge financial crisis, the adverse effects of falling into the photovoltaic industry, "Bingku."
This year, by the German rate cut solar subsidies to promote the message, many German investors want to catch the rush before the formal installation of PV modules down, triggering a new round of growth in the photovoltaic industry. Investment adviser in accordance with available data, in 2009 the German PV installed capacity of 3.8 GW, and last year the global PV installed capacity is only about 7 GW, the rapid growth of the German market to stimulate the domestic photovoltaic industry starts to recover quickly from "cold" to "hot."
No follow-up "city" worries.
When the demand for Spain and Germany after the blowout, a new substitute for the German market did not appear. The most optimistic about the industry also generated by a large U.S. market either.
July 21, the U.S. Senate Energy Committee passed the "million solar roofs proposal", the proposal plan from 2012 to 2020 no less than $ 250,000,000 per year into a special fund used to subsidize the construction of solar system with the goal by 2020 installation of 10 million. However, the investment adviser of new energy industry researcher Chen Hongwen that 2.5 billion dollars in subsidies for solar photovoltaic industry raw materials, components, and the net cost of installation of photovoltaic systems for one of the "drop in the bucket", and the number of large U.S. states, the average diluted even more insignificant.
According to the investment adviser's "2010 to 2015 China's Solar Energy Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" shows that in 2009 the U.S. PV capacity of 477 MW installed, compared to 3.8 GW in Germany, the gap considerably. The future is difficult to put on a similar German market. Japan, France and other countries, sometimes also a lack of demand for heavy volume growth. But rather optimistic about China's domestic market overseas.
Chen Hongwen that to the domestic market, the short term may not open. Countries, held in August this year, 280-megawatt photovoltaic power station franchise tender, the central enterprises to low bid all items, in the face out of the central enterprises reported less than 1 yuan / kWh price, can discourage private PV companies; The Chinese PV industry could face at any time become another piece of anti-dumping "stumbling block."
Although there is a market decline and other worries, but the domestic photovoltaic industry to expand production capacity of step with big strides forward. Data show that in 2008 4,300 tons of polysilicon production, annual output of 20,200 tons in 2009, output in 2010 is expected to reach 3 million tons, production capacity of 100,000 tons, at present there are still many in the construction of the polysilicon project.
"PV industry to have a rational judgments, we are a global market share of 60% to 70%, but I do not think only the Chinese do, if accounted for 100%, is to get yourself to death, we have been looking for balance but has not been found. "Li Junfeng, the case said.